The ICT Weekly Range Expansion Model is a concept from the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) framework.
It explains how the price of a currency pair or asset typically expands during a trading week — and how Smart Money traders anticipate and trade these movements.
It’s not random — price tends to follow a predictable pattern of accumulation, manipulation, and expansion during the week.
1. Why is ICT Weekly Range Expansion Model Important?
Understanding this model helps you:
- Avoid false breakouts
- Anticipate major price moves
- Align trades with Smart Money intentions
- Enter and exit trades with higher precision
2. Key Idea Behind ICT Weekly Range Expansion Model
Each trading week typically follows this three-part structure:
- Accumulation – Market trades sideways, building up liquidity
- Manipulation (Fake Move) – Price makes a false breakout to trap traders
- Expansion – The real move happens, typically mid to late week
This sequence often occurs between Tuesday and Friday.
3. How the ICT Weekly Range Expansion Model Works: Step-by-Step
1. Monday – Accumulation Phase
- The market usually trades in a tight range.
- Institutions are positioning themselves and identifying where liquidity lies (above highs or below lows).
- Retail traders may place early trades — which often get taken out later.
Example:
EUR/USD on Monday trades between 1.0800 and 1.0840. No clear trend. Smart Money is accumulating positions.
2. Tuesday or Wednesday – Manipulation Phase
- Price often breaks out of the Monday range — but in the wrong direction.
- This is the “fake move” that creates inducement and hits stop losses.
Example:
Price spikes down to 1.0780 on Tuesday, taking out long positions (sell stops), and giving the illusion of a bearish breakout.
3. Wednesday to Friday – Expansion Phase
- Now the real move begins, usually in the opposite direction of the manipulation.
- This is where Smart Money drives the trend and creates the weekly high or low.
- The movement is often sharp and clear.
Example:
After the Tuesday drop, EUR/USD rallies from 1.0780 to 1.0900 by Friday. The real bullish move starts.
4. Where to Look for Trade Setups using ICT Weekly Range Expansion Model
To trade the Weekly Range Expansion Model effectively:
- Use the Monday Range as your reference.
- Wait for a liquidity raid or fake move on Tuesday or Wednesday.
- Enter trades during the London or New York Killzones after the fake move.
- Target the weekly expansion — often 50 to 100 pips or more.
5. Real Example: ICT Weekly Range Expansion Model
GBP/USD – Week of April 1–5:
- Monday range: 1.2600–1.2650
- Tuesday: Price breaks below 1.2600, hits stops
- Wednesday: Price reverses and rallies
- Thursday/Friday: Expansion continues to 1.2750
Traders who recognized the manipulation phase early were able to catch the real move and ride it with confidence.
6. Tips to Master the ICT Weekly Range Expansion Model
- Use a horizontal line or a box to mark the Monday high and low
- Watch for false breakouts during Asian or early London sessions on Tuesday or Wednesday
- Look for entries using FVGs, Order Blocks, or OTE around the manipulation zone
- Be patient — the real move usually starts midweek
7. Final Thoughts
The ICT Weekly Range Expansion Model shows how price behaves throughout the week — and how Smart Money moves it.
By understanding the phases of Accumulation, Manipulation, and Expansion, you can plan trades that are aligned with institutional flows — not retail emotions.
This model is especially powerful when combined with other ICT tools like liquidity, CHOCH, MSS, and FVGs.
Would you like a chart example or template to apply this model to your own trading?
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